Either Mansour Misunderstands Sports Betting or Bloomberg Misunderstands Mansour
Bloomberg’s single misframed distinction highlights an existential risk that Kalshi may not outrun
The media interest in prediction markets is growing by the minute. That’s not surprising: Lawsuits are piling up, Kalshi was forced to leave Nevada, Arizona filed criminal charges (our podcast coverage), congressional bills are flying around and even AOC has now chimed in:
Despite the chaos, or perhaps because of it, Kalshi has managed to raise another $1 billion at a whopping $22 billion valuation.
No wonder, then, Bloomberg Businessweek’s March issue made prediction markets its cover story.
It’s a solid read, but today we’re focusing on one specific piece of it: Mansour’s supposed distinction between “artificial risk” and “natural risk,” and Bloomberg’s claim that this is what separates Kalshi from sportsbooks.
If this is truly Mansour’s position, it’s one of his most incoherent yet.
Alternatively, Bloomberg may simply be muddying the waters even more–likely unintentionally, but the result is the same.
Could this be the blunder that erases a $22 billion valuation overnight?
