The Legal Status of Sports Gambling in America

The gap between what the law says and what regulators choose to enforce–is the battleground where the fate of the entire sports gambling industry will…

Mar 3 • Alper Ozgit

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Normalized, Not Legalized: A Response to Matthew Yglesias

A decades‑old federal framework collided with a decade of regulatory silence on sports gambling

Mar 3 • Alper Ozgit

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February 2026

The Redacted Middle

Massachusetts and Tennessee have put prediction markets, sports betting and the CEA on a SCOTUS collision course

Feb 26 • Lexicon Labs

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Predicting The State of the Union

When Speech Becomes Tradeable

Feb 24 • Lexicon Labs

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The Scalpel Moves South: Tennessee’s Kalshi Ruling Accelerates the Sports Betting Conversation

A preliminary injunction in Tennessee, CFTC authority, prediction markets and the uncomfortable question states don’t want asked

Feb 20 • Lexicon Labs

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Unfinished Business: What Murphy Didn’t Decide About Sports Gambling

Everyone assumed SCOTUS opened the door. The law says otherwise–and the consequences are finally catching up

Feb 19 • Lexicon Labs

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The House Always Wins - But Who’s the House?

Cracks in the field–unenforced laws are powering America’s betting boom

Feb 9 • Lexicon Labs

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January 2026

NPR’s Prediction Market Piece Got Event Contracts Wrong

The legal distinction they missed, why it matters, and where Kalshi and others are going to trip up in court

Jan 31 • Lexicon Labs

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State-regulated Sportsbooks Are Walking the Judicial Tightrope

How one Massachusetts state court brought them closer to a nightmare scenario

Jan 23 • Lexicon Labs

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Excluded Commodities, Swaps, and the Ross–Russ Parallel

How Congress collapsed the line between excluded commodities and swaps–and why that made it even harder for states to win on preemption

Jan 20 • Lexicon Labs

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What Does “Financial, Economic or Commercial Consequence” Even Mean?

Part II: Why the naturally occurring vs. artificial distinction is the only workable limiting principle for prediction markets

Jan 8 • Lexicon Labs

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December 2025

What Does “Financial, Commercial or Economic Consequence” Even Mean?

Part I: Was it meant to be a substitute for the economic purpose test?

Dec 12, 2025 • Lexicon Labs

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